The "fourth wave" of decisions regarding sanctions from the UN Security Council will not be sufficient to bring Iran to its knees; however, it does make it clear that the UN order has come to an end. The agreement brokered by Brazil and Turkey with Iran has removed the legitimacy of the UN's decisions regarding sanctions. An insistence on sanctions despite this proves to be nothing more than a diversion from the real issue at hand.
The Tehran administration has vowed that it will adhere to all of the conditions of the "swap" set forth by the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei. In the text of the Turkey-Brazil-Iran agreement, which was announced on May 17, the demands of those who decided on sanctions against Iran were met. And the content of the letter sent by US President Barack Obama to Turkey and Brazil is clear evidence of this.
While the demands of the IAEA, "Obama's letter" and the agreement reached with Tehran are out in the open, the UN cannot decide on sanctions against Iran.
ElBaradei, in an interview with Brazilian daily Jornal Do Brasil, said he could not understand efforts towards sanctions in spite of this agreement.
These decisions should be seen as "alarm bells" that herald the exhaustion of the UN order. This stance, under such circumstances, will create an environment of chaos in the short and mid-term.
It is true that interest directs foreign politics. This is called realpolitik. In the international system, "peace and justice" do not take the lead. However, the Cold War years, in their entirety, were spent with concrete applications of such an "inhumane and immoral" understanding. However, there was still a notion of order. The decision for sanctions against Iran signals the decay of the UN as a referee, or rather the notion of "order" as we know it.
For the last eight years, Turkey has been conducting foreign politics that question the old understanding of international politics. This understanding believes that the interests of countries can be just as well realized through peace as opposed to conflict. Furthermore, Turkey has proven that this can be the case through tangible results.
The voting that took place at the UN Security Council was the confrontation of these two opposing understandings. The search for "war and sanctions" chased by the rulers of the old world are facing the representatives of the rising new world, such as Brazil and Turkey, who voice "peace and diplomacy."
The former may have won in the voting that took place at the UN; however, there is no doubt that they will be prisoners of conscience. The US, England, France, Russia and China (plus Germany) may decide on further sanctions against Iran in the course of dual relations between one another.
But will they be able to apply them?
If the "old order" were still valid, yes, but this is no longer possible. The decision made by these "permanent members of the UN" will not be permanent.
Obama: the depletion of hope
If the UN order collapses, the Obama administration will be buried under its ruble. Obama had created great hope in the world with his new "discourse," but today we are witnessing the depletion of hope.
Now we see, "No, he cannot."
Here's the skinny: Turkey has begun to put pressure on the immoral structure of the international system. We saw this first in the attitude displayed by Washington and Moscow during the Armenian initiative and then during the efforts to protect Israel and its thuggery in the Mediterranean Sea. Now we see the injustice being done to Iran.
The peace discourse belonging to global actors has been taken away from them and as the massive projectors turned on by Turkey and Brazil light up the stage, those who desire peace and those who want war have been caught in the light.
Turkey couldn't remain impartial in the voting that took place at the UN Security Council. It had to vote "no," and that's just what it did. The mission placed on Turkey by history, during the era it is passing through today, requires this.
Turkey did what was expected of it by voting "no."
12 June 2010, Saturday